Share and mutual fund [24/03, 8:15 pm] jeyamchok: There is lot of uncertainty in the world as of now.

Donald Trump is giving confused statements every 2 hours.

Don't know how long this war will last.

Higher prices of crude.. will directly hamper growth of world by 0.5 to 0.75%..

For India higher crude price will affect GDP by 0.5 to 1%.

Higher dollar price will also impact us.

And one report published in America.. states that there is 30% chance that America may go in recession. American debt is at 39 trillion dollar. It's yearly interest is approx 1.3 trillion dollar.

In India -- the problem of LPG ( and industrial gas ) will be very BIG from 1 April. Many companies can reduce their production by 25 - 40 %

Analysts are eagerly waiting for commentary by companies in next month when they will declare yearly results & will share future outlook.

Taking all this factors... Nifty can certainly go below 22000

[24/03, 8:16 pm] jeyamchok: Market is not fully bottomed yet

One fall is still pending 

Yesterday's low that was 22471 should breach once

After that market should stablize / range bound and should bottom out

✔️

[25/03, 3:49 pm] jeyamchok: Do you know this?

The current fall of Gold is the 4th largest crash of Gold in the last 19 years. And this is the 2nd steepest fall too. 22.48% fall in just 37 days.

On the contrary, Nifty 500 fell just 19% from the peak in Sep 2024. Remember, this 19% fall happened over 111 days. Nifty 50 fell just 16% over 113 days. More imp - the current fall is not in the top 5 crashes of Nifty!

Now, tell me what is risky?

Equity or Gold? 😁

[25/03, 8:24 pm] jeyamchok: #BREAKING 🚨 END OF WAR

THIS IS HUGE 🔥

Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei Has Agreed to Negotiate With The U.S. And Reach An Agreement

[31/03, 4:13 pm] jeyamchok: *Vijay Kedia*🚩

*✅ "Your Demat statement* belongs to the market.Your bank statement belongs to you."

*The rise you saw* was a paper profit.

*The fall you see today* is a paper loss.

*Nothing is real…* until you sell.

*Yes, my portfolio is down* too. And worrying won’t raise prices. It will only disturb your peace, your mood, and even your family life.

*Yes, this is a crisis*. But it is also training.

Markets don’t build wealth without first building your temperament.

*In my investing journey,* I have seen many such phases. I was worried then too...I am human. But I learned to live with these moments instead of reacting to them.

*And every time the cycle turned*, every new bull phase took my portfolio to new highs.

*These situations are not here to break you*… they are here to build you.

They are what make you a seasoned long-term investor forever.

*You have to win over your mind.*

Events create uncertainty… but fear is shaped within.

Learn to observe it, understand it, and guide it,  because you are not your mind.

*Stay patient. Stay aware. Stay grounded.*

Because in the end, it’s not the market… it’s your temperament that creates wealth. ✌️

_This Too Shall Pass_

 _Raat Ke Baad Subha Hai_✨

🙏🌺🌈

[31/03, 5:33 pm] jeyamchok: Good Quality Stocks Are Correcting From Their Peaks👁️👁️

CDSL — 33%🔻

Angel One — 21%🔻

Godrej Properties — 54%🔻

Astral Pipes — 24%🔻

SJVN — 57%🔻

REC — 50%🔻

Voltas — 24%🔻

JSW Energy — 54%🔻

Trent — 44%🔻

Bank of India — 48%🔻

Tata Motors — 38%🔻

Jio Finance — 52%🔻

NHPC — 36%🔻

HAL — 36%🔻

Kalyani — 37%🔻

[31/03, 9:27 pm] jeyamchok: Really sensible tweet from @nakul_sarda India focused fund Portfolio Management 

*******************************

I've stopped reading Gulf war headlines. Here's what I track instead.

We run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India's crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes — this crisis is personal.

But the information environment right now is garbage. Trump says the war ends tomorrow. Iran says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can't build a portfolio view on this.

So I've narrowed it down to 4 signals. These are priced by people with real money on the line. They don't lie.

1. Ship insurance premiums through Hormuz

This is the single best signal. Lloyd's underwriters have billions at stake on every pricing call. Before the war, insuring a tanker through Hormuz cost 0.25% of the ship's value. Today it's 3.5–10% — and almost nobody is buying. A $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M. When this drops below 2%, the people with the most to lose are telling you it's getting safer. No press conference can replicate that.

2. How many ships are actually crossing

Every ship carries a GPS tracker (AIS). You can count exactly how many cross Hormuz each day. Before: 100+. Now: 8. That's a 92% collapse. You can't spin a ship being somewhere it isn't. Iran is letting some Chinese and Indian ships through, but it's a trickle. When this number crosses 30–40, trade is resuming. You can track this free on the WTO Hormuz Trade Tracker.

3. Paper oil vs real oil

This one most people miss entirely. Brent crude (the headline price) is at $112. But Dubai physical — what Asian buyers actually pay for delivered oil — is at $126. That's a $14 gap. It exists because Trump's comments keep pushing paper prices down. Traders call it jawboning. But the refiners buying cargo aren't getting any discount. If you're looking at Brent to assess India's oil bill, you're looking at the wrong number.

4. The mid-April cliff

Multiple emergency measures expire around the same time. The 400 million barrel SPR release runs dry ~April 15. The US waiver letting India buy Russian crude expires. Formosa Plastics has declared force majeure from April 1. Right now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at ~5 mb/d. Without them, BCA Research estimates it doubles to 10 mb/d — the largest crude disruption ever. If Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, we're in uncharted territory.

*Bottom line: track the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise.*

[03/04, 4:15 pm] jeyamchok: https://youtube.com/shorts/g9nVsmEbOCk?si=fQOeE_JZiTS9W2Ac

Explaining how to choose the right mutual fund for us broadly

[05/04, 6:33 am] jeyamchok: Almost a decade ago, my investment journey began with a strong focus on guaranteed returns. I consistently invested nearly 1 lakh in PPF each year during the first week of April. 

However, as I gained a deeper understanding of the importance of inflation-adjusted returns, my approach shifted. I reduced my contributions to PPF, now making only the minimum deposit of 500 Rupees to keep the account active. Whenever possible, I withdrew funds from my PPF to invest in alternative assets that provide better inflation-adjusted returns.  

My mindset has transformed from seeking guaranteed returns every year to prioritizing inflation-adjusted returns over the long term.  

The enclosed image illustrates the decline in PPF interest rates over the past 25 years, showing a significant 42% drop in returns.

[05/04, 8:13 am] jeyamchok: Something BIG is happening in Indian banking & most are underestimating it 👇

Q4 FY26 updates aren’t just good, they’re system-wide explosive.

The Leaders Setting the Pace 🔥 

> HDFC Bank: Advances up 12% & Deposits up 14.4%.

> Punjab National Bank (PNB): Global business +10.8% YoY to ₹29.72 lakh Cr | Deposits +9.25% | Advances +13%

> Bank of Baroda: Global business ₹30.78 lakh Cr (+13.93%) | Advances +16.2% | Deposits +12%

> Bank of India: Global business ₹16.98 lakh Cr (+14.53%) | Advances +15.7% | RAM +18.6%

> Indian Bank: Total business +13.1% (₹14.98 lakh Cr) | Deposits +12.6% | Advances +13.6%

> Central Bank of India: Total business ₹8.13 lakh Cr (+15.65%) | Advances +18.9%

> Tamilnad Mercantile Bank (TMB): Advances +20.3% | Total business +17.4%

> South Indian Bank: Advances +15.7% | Deposits +14.7% (just crossed ₹1 lakh Cr in advances)

And Then Come the “Underestimated” Names

> AU Small Finance Bank, CSB Bank (+27% adv)

Karur Vysya Bank, IDFC First Bank All Are Quietly compounding at 15-25%+ 🚀

: Double-digit growth in business, deposits & advances across the board.

[05/04, 2:23 pm] jeyamchok: Stocks to watch 👆👆👆

Aeroflex 

Hitachi energy 

Schneider electric 

Krn heat exchange 

Voltas

Amber

Bluestar

[06/04, 1:37 pm] jeyamchok: I know there will be lot of hatred comments for this but read this patiently. You will understand. We can agree to disagree but hatred/abusive comments take no where.

Many investors begin their equity investing journey significantly later, often 5-10 years after starting their careers. This delay can lead to a skewed asset allocation that leans more towards Fixed Income and Real Estate. 

If the traditional formula of 100 minus your age is applied at 35 or 40, it suggests an equity allocation of 60-65%. However, this approach does not account for the opportunity loss experienced during the early years of employment.

Personal finance is inherently "Personal." If the 100-Age formula holds true, why do renowned investors like Warren Buffet maintain a higher equity allocation even at the age of 95? 

It's crucial to understand the purpose of asset allocation and to customize it according to your individual financial situation.

[07/04, 5:26 pm] jeyamchok: Categorywise returns of Equity Mutual Funds when Smallcaps are down by 25%, Midcaps down 14%, Largecaps down by 15% from their ATH Values

There were concerns on SMID Valuations for 5 yrs. They fell more in the recent fall but still top the returns in 3/5/7/10 yr period 🙂

[07/04, 9:48 pm] jeyamchok: Let us talk negative about equities 😀😀

There is no guarantee that equities will give good returns in the long run!

18 yrs - Long Term Done but still returns are not good!

Why should I invest in equities? Equities are very risky 😎

Do not invest in equities!

[19/04, 9:49 am] jeyamchok: 📊 Small Cap Funds: Why Time Horizon Is Everything!!!

I've been tracking small cap fund performance across multiple time horizons — 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 15 years — and the data tells a compelling story. Only 1 and 2 years alone single digit!

The market has been under pressure for the past 18–24 months. Short-term returns? Single digits. Underwhelming, and understandably discouraging for many investors.

But zoom out, and the narrative shifts completely.

✅ 3-year returns: 15%+ CAGR ✅5, 7, 10, 15-year returns: Consistently strong.

Small caps are volatile — that's not a secret. But volatility without a long-time horizon is the real risk, not the asset class itself.

The data is clear: if you're investing for the long term, small and mid cap funds deserve a significant place in your portfolio.

Wealth isn't built by avoiding volatility. It's built by staying invested through it. 💡

Narratives can move markets today. Reality builds wealth tomorrow.

Most of the war impact is coming to neutral now!

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices. 🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[21/04, 6:49 pm] jeyamchok: Smallcap Funds CY Returns since 2016. Active Funds with 5 yr history considered

Disc - Not a recommendation.  Consult ur advisor.

[22/04, 8:17 pm] jeyamchok: Small-cap funds witnessed a steady decline from September 2024 until March 30, 2026. 

Yet, in just three weeks, they staged a sharp rebound—reminding us how swiftly markets can recover. 

This illustration underscores a timeless truth: investing is not about short-term swings but about staying committed for the long haul. 

Wealth creation becomes truly meaningful only when investors remain patient, disciplined, and invested through cycles.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices. 🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[22/04, 8:24 pm] jeyamchok: 🚨🚨 *Tata Communications Q4 profit slides, margin improves; ₹17.5 dividend declared* 

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/tata-communications-q4-results-profit-slides-margin-improves-dividend-declared-19891347.htm?utm_medium=social&utm_source=whatsapp&utm_campaign=regular-editorial

[23/04, 5:28 am] jeyamchok: Smallcaps were brutally hit during the mkt fall from Sep 2024 to Mar 2025 (6 months)

Benchmark fell by 25%, Smallcap MF category fell by an avg of 23%

Over 6 months, the fall was 25% 

Now in the last 1 month, it is up by 15%

Mkt recovers quickly when things get better

[24/04, 7:25 pm] jeyamchok: 🚨🚨  *RBI cancels Paytm Payments Bank licence; bars it from banking operations*

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/rbi-cancels-paytm-payments-bank-licence-bars-it-from-banking-operations-19893020.htm?utm_medium=social&utm_source=whatsapp&utm_campaign=regular-editorial

[28/04, 1:54 pm] jeyamchok: FII increasing stakes in the below stocks

Gone are those days where FIIs used to buy ONLY largecaps

[30/04, 7:30 pm] jeyamchok: ₹1 Lakh to ₹19 Lakhs 🤯 Power of Long-Term Investing

1. Adani Power → ~₹19 Lakhs

2. Bharat Electronics → ~₹15 Lakhs

3. Mahindra & Mahindra → ~₹7 Lakhs

4. Tata Power → ~₹6 Lakhs

5. Bharti Airtel → ~₹5 Lakhs

6. Adani Ports → ~₹4 Lakhs

7. ICICI Bank → ~₹3.2 Lakhs

8. Bajaj Finance → ~₹2.6 Lakhs

9. Reliance Industries → ~₹1.7 Lakhs

[30/04, 8:10 pm] jeyamchok: Conversation b/w me & my investor today 🙂

He - Are we at the bottom?

Me - Yes!

He - How are you so sure?

Me - When would u need the money?

He - Not for the next 10 years

Me - No doubt, this is definitely a bottom for the next 10 yrs! 😎😎

[30/04, 8:21 pm] jeyamchok: The 15-year track record of small-cap funds (lumpsum investment) speaks for itself. 

While the past 19 months of weak market performance have dragged down 1- and 2-year returns, the longer horizons continue to deliver a robust ~15% CAGR. 

Setting expectations around 13% for this category is both reasonable and realistic, though investors must remember its inherent volatility. 

As with any investment, there are no guarantees—due diligence and disciplined decision-making remain essential.

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[02/05, 8:11 pm] jeyamchok: If you bought 300 shares of  Dr. Reddy's at ₹8 each in 1992,  

Your ₹2,400 investment in 1992 is now worth ₹8.25 crore. 

 Power of investing...

[02/05, 8:12 pm] jeyamchok: 🔴 Market decline from the peak 19 months ago  

Red downward arrow / falling bar icon → prolonged correction phase shaping investor sentiment.

🛢️ Fall triggered by the onset of the oil war  

Amber oil barrel / shockwave icon → global shocks cascading into Indian equities.

🟢 Recovery during the current financial year  

Green upward arrow / growth chart icon → resilience and rebound in domestic markets.

⚖️ Oil war’s impact on Indian stock markets  

Amber balance scale / volatility wave icon → uncertainty and external conflict driving market swings.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices. 🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[02/05, 8:14 pm] jeyamchok: We’ve captured Multi cap fund performances across YTD, the current financial year, and 1-year horizons.

Yes, mutual funds are undeniably long-term investments—no one disputes that. But in today’s volatile market, tracking which funds are moving and which are lagging is equally critical. 

For anyone building long-term wealth from here, understanding short-term shifts is not about timing the market, but about staying informed and disciplined while navigating it.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices.    🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[02/05, 8:16 pm] jeyamchok: We’ve captured Flexi Cap fund performances across YTD, the current financial year, and 1-year horizons.

Yes, mutual funds are undeniably long-term investments—no one disputes that. But in today’s volatile market, tracking which funds are moving and which are lagging is equally critical. 

For anyone building long-term wealth from here, understanding short-term shifts is not about timing the market, but about staying informed and disciplined while navigating it.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices.    🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[03/05, 5:27 am] jeyamchok: We’ve captured Large & Midcap fund performances across YTD, the current financial year, and 1-year horizons.

Yes, mutual funds are undeniably long-term investments—no one disputes that. But in today’s volatile market, tracking which funds are moving and which are lagging is equally critical. 

For anyone building long-term wealth from here, understanding short-term shifts is not about timing the market, but about staying informed and disciplined while navigating it.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices.    🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.

[05/05, 5:01 pm] jeyamchok: 🚨Cost of Living in India 2010 vs 2025 

                           2010                    2025

1 Litre Petrol   ₹51                       ₹105

1 Litre Milk.      ₹25                      ₹60

Movie Ticket.  ₹120.                   ₹400

Monthly Rent. ₹8,000              ₹30,000

i Phone (Base) ₹30,000           ₹80,000

Internet              ₹100/GB           ₹20/GB

School Fees     ₹10,000             ₹70,000

Airfare                ₹3,000               ₹8,000

Petrol Prices Have Doubled in 15 Years

Rent increased 2-3 Times

Education & Health Care Have become luxury 

Internet Cost Drop 70% Due to Jio.

[07/05, 5:21 am] jeyamchok: Many investors still believe small caps fell the hardest, largely because they don’t track the market closely or regularly. This perception persists even though the broader picture tells a different story.

I have captured 4 scenarios

From the market peak on 26th September 2024 to today – tracing the extended correction phase investors have witnessed.

The sharp fall triggered by the onset of the oil war – showing how global shocks ripple through Indian equities.

The rebound beginning this financial year – highlighting resilience and the swift bounce-back potential of markets.

The true impact of the oil war on Indian markets – underscoring the volatility and uncertainty external conflicts impose.

Conducting thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions is essential to ensure well-informed choices. 🙏🙏🙏

Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that mutual fund investments are exposed to market risk. Before making any investment decisions, review all scheme-related documentation thoroughly. The material of the reports is intended solely for informational purposes and should be used by the recipient. While we made significant efforts to compile the data and contents of this report, we give no promises about the logic of the assumptions or the veracity of any data. Any decisions made using this material are completely the responsibility of the recipient. We reserve the right to correct any errors or discrepancies in the reports that are discovered or brought to our attention at any time. Perform your research thoroughly before making any investments. Why? Just because it's interesting.